At present, the Russian economy, which is in urgent need of recovery, has finally received a shot in the arm.
According to the arrangement of the Federal Government, Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously instructed the Federal government to develop Russia's economic recovery plan after the COVID-19 epidemic and submit it by June 1. According to Russian media, the economic recovery plan will cover nine areas in "three steps" with 500 measures totaling about 8 trillion rubles ($114.597 billion).
Wei Jinshen, an associate professor at lanzhou University's School of Politics and International Relations, told China Business News that the economic recovery plan has three features: First, it has a huge amount of money. Second, it is highly target-oriented. The plan mainly flows to infrastructure, industries and regional development, with the purpose of getting Russia out of the economic recession and achieving economic growth as soon as possible. Third, we need to turn crisis into opportunity and stimulate innovative economic development, such as developing new forms of employment and training, simplifying business regulation, and expanding exports.
Mr Wei stressed that the Russian economy needs to recover in three areas: the energy sector, which is the backbone of the Russian economy, the light industry sector, which is closely related to people's livelihood, and the innovation economy.
The latest figures show that Russia has seen 9,035 new confirmed cases in the past 24 hours, bringing the total number of confirmed cases nationwide to 414,878, ranking third in the world. Meanwhile, 162 new deaths and 4,855 deaths have been reported.
After May 16, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Russia dropped to less than 10,000 in a single day, fluctuating around 9,000 each day. Mr. Putin, for his part, said in late May that expert opinion he had heard believed the peak of the epidemic in Russia had passed.
Three steps to economic recovery
Affected by multiple factors such as the impact of COVID-19 epidemic and the fluctuation of international oil prices, the Russian economy has experienced a sharp recession, which is mainly reflected in the decrease of household income, slow recovery of the industry and high unemployment rate. "In response to the impact of the epidemic on the Russian economy, Russia has launched an economic recovery plan to stimulate economic recovery and pull the Russian economy out of recession as soon as possible." Wei jinshen said.
According to the Russian government information agency, the economic recovery plan adopted due to the epidemic will be implemented until the end of 2021. By then, it hopes to have achieved, through a recovery plan, the following goals by the end of 2021: real household wages will rise at least 2.5 per cent a year; The proportion of low-income groups in the population declined; Fixed asset investment increased by at least 4.5% year on year; Exports of non-raw materials and non-energy products shall increase by at least 5% year on year; The industrial production index grew at least 3% year on year.
Russia's nominal GDP in April was about 6.3 trillion rubles, down about 28 percent from a year earlier and 33 percent from a month earlier, with losses of about 2.4 trillion rubles ($33 billion), according to the latest monthly budget implementation report from the Finance ministry.
According to the announced recovery plan, the first phase will be an "adaptation" phase that will run from the late second quarter to the third quarter of this year, with the goal of preventing the recession from continuing and spreading to other sectors. By the end of this period, the growth rate of real household income, industrial production index, retail trade turnover and service industry turnover shall not be lower than 0. At the same time, during this phase, some epidemic prevention restrictions will be phased out.
The second phase is the "recovery" phase, which runs from the fourth quarter of this year to the second quarter of 2021. At this stage, the government's main objective is to ensure that citizens' incomes and the economy begin to recover and grow. At the end of this period, the national economy is expected to enter a stable growth track, unemployment rate will be further reduced, and citizens' real income shall not be lower than 98 percent of its level in the same period of 2019. At this stage, the epidemic prevention restrictions will be completely lifted.
The third stage is the "positive growth" stage, which will be implemented in the third and fourth quarters of 2021. The tasks at this stage are to ensure that economic growth is higher than the world average, real personal income is growing steadily, unemployment rate is below 5%, and GDP growth is sustainable at least 2.5%.
According to Wei jinshen, among the above economic recovery plans, Russia's economic recovery plans for the energy industry, the former being the economic pillar of Russia, and the innovative economic industry, the latter being the future of Russia's economic development, deserve more attention. "Faced with the double impact of the epidemic and oil price fluctuations, Russia needs to increase investment in energy infrastructure, including upstream exploration and development and pipeline construction." He said, "The light industry is the industry that is the fastest to recover from the impact of the epidemic. By boosting production and stimulating consumption, the Russian economy will quickly turn around. Economic innovation is closely related to the realization of economic structural transformation in Russia."
There are two main reasons to avoid high mortality
The low mortality rate has been the focus of attention during Russia's closure of the city. The mortality rate of COVID-19 in Russia has been hovering at a low level of around 1%, compared with 4% to 15% in severely affected countries in Europe and the US.
In and around The worst-hit Russian capital, The latest figures from the Moscow municipal government show that 636 people died in April as a direct result of COVID-19, with 756 people who tested positive for the coronavirus but died from other complications. In April, 1,561 people died of COVID-19 in Russia.
In this regard, the Russian epidemic prevention headquarters believes that large-scale testing, early detection of cases, is to avoid a high mortality. Although Russia has more than 400,000 confirmed cases, second only to the US and Brazil, mild and asymptomatic cases are more common.
In addition, Russian governments at all levels have also alerted the elderly population vulnerable to COVID-19 through various channels. Xiao Hu (pseudonym), a Chinese enterprise employee who has worked in Moscow for many years, told China Business News that he was impressed by the preparedness of elderly Russians against coVID-19. "Previous experience in many countries in Europe and the US has shown that older people are vulnerable to COVID-19, which is why the government has been urging them to stay indoors in various forms since before the 'foot ban' was introduced at the end of March." "Even the Moscow metro got a new name," he said. Even as Russia begins to unwind its restrictions, Mr Putin still wants high-risk categories, including those over 65, to stay indoors.
In terms of drugs, the new list of national medicines released by the Russian Ministry of Health shows that the antiviral drug Farpiravir has become the first drug approved by the Russian Ministry of Health for the treatment of COVID-19.
Putin's latest decision at the end of May indicated that Russia would hold a military parade on June 24 to mark the 75th anniversary of the victory of the Great Patriotic War. The parade had been postponed because of the outbreak.
The BRICS summit and the SCO summit scheduled for July in Russia will be postponed. The Kremlin said the date of the new event would be decided according to the development of the epidemic situation.